What are currently the greatest threats to the human race? Without a doubt, in my mind at least, there are three: covid-19 in the short term, nuclear weapons in the mid-range, and global warming in the more distant future.
It was mainly the latter two that in January of this year led the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Security Board to set the iconic Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight, closer to “doomsday” than at any point since its creation in 1947. (Here is the link to that announcement: https://thebulletin.org/2020/01/press-release-it-is-now-100-seconds-to-midnight/ .)
The Threat of Covid-19
Since
the new setting of the Doomsday Clock was in January, the new coronavirus
pandemic was not a part of the consideration for the new setting, which had
remained at two minutes before midnight since January 2018.
However,
in spite of the fact that there have been nearly 750,000 deaths worldwide
caused by covid-19—and who knows how many hundreds of thousands there will be
before it is brought under control—it is not likely to bring about “doomsday.”
It
has, however, already brought about extreme sadness for those who have lost
loved ones and it threatens to make life more precarious for tens of millions
of people.
For
example, the upcoming edition of Foreign Affairs journal has an article titled “The Pandemic Depression: The Global Economy
Will Never Be the Same.” The authors explore
the massive economic contraction caused by the covid-19 pandemic that could
push as many as 60 million people into extreme poverty.
But there are bigger threats to humanity.
The Threat of Nuclear Weapons
The statement issued by the Bulletin of Atomic
Scientists on January 23 declared: “Humanity continues to face two simultaneous
existential dangers—nuclear war and climate change—that are compounded by a
threat multiplier, cyber-enabled information warfare, that undercuts society’s
ability to respond.”
In this post I am writing mostly about the former,
partly because of all that has been said this past week in remembrance of the
75th anniversary of the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
New energy is now being given to ratifying the Treaty
on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), which was passed by the United
Nations in 2017. It will become a “legally binding instrument to prohibit nuclear
weapons, leading towards their total elimination” when ratified by 50 entities.”
The three that did so last week—Ireland, Nigeria,
and Niue—make 43 that have now
ratified the TPNW. Of course, none of the nations possessing nuclear weapons
have ratified that treaty nor, inexplicably, has Japan.
The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear
Weapons (ICAN) is a coalition of non-governmental organizations in one hundred
countries promoting adherence to and implementation of the TPNW.
(You can find more information about that important group, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017 here: https://www.icanw.org/.)
An informative Aug.
4 article about ICAN hopefully states, “The world has never been so close
to abolishing nuclear weapons and there’s hope this may be achieved by the end
of this year.” (See here: https://wagingnonviolence.org/2020/08/nuclear-weapons-abolition-hiroshima-nagasaki-75th-anniversary/.)
May it be so!
The Threat of Climate Change
Short of an all-out nuclear war, the biggest
threat to the long-term future of humankind is global warming. That was the
subject of my first blog post this year: “Climate
Crisis: The Challenge of the Decade.”
With the current pandemic raging, it seems that we
are not now hearing much about the ever-increasing threat of global warming. I
hope that soon the focus of our attention on the urgent matters of the present
can shift to a consideration of the even more urgent matters threatening the future
of the human race.
After all, “100 seconds to midnight” is a dire warning that needs to be taken far more seriously than most of us have.
An important and fundamentally correct blog, in my view! You mentioned the economic consequences of the pandemic, but I think that, alongside your three, I'd put poverty, even apart from the pandemic. Poverty is an ongoing scourge that kills and wastes millions of lives across the world every year.
ReplyDelete[Here is a corrected version of my response to Anton posted yesterday.]
DeleteThanks, as always, for your comments, Anton--and thanks for calling more attention to the problem of poverty in the world, a persistent problem that gets far too little consideration. But while I fully agree with your concluding statement, I do not see poverty as a threat to the survival of the human race. While poverty may well lead to an increasing number of deaths to those suffering from the lack of food, shelter, health care, etc., those of us in the wealthy part of the world will continue to survive--and maybe even thrive--until nuclear war commences or global warming becomes irreversible.
Not long after 7 a.m., Thinking Friend Eric Dollard in Chicago sent me an email with the following comments:
ReplyDelete"Thanks, Leroy, for bringing this up.
"What nations spend on military defense is insane as is the idea that all of these weapons are needed. Most military hardware will never be used, fortunately, so it will eventually just be mothballed--a waste in itself. And if it is used, it will be destroyed in warfare--another waste. This is the cost of tribalism.
"Nietzsche once wrote that 'insanity in individuals is something rare--but in groups, parties, nations, and epochs it is the rule.'
"As a first step, the U.S. should unilaterally reduce its nuclear arsenal by ten percent, and then challenge the other nuclear nations to do likewise. If that works, then cut another ten percent and so on. In the meantime, there should be some serious negotiations by the nuclear nations to eventually eliminate nuclear weapons and to build a more stable peace. This, of course, will not happen under our current president."
Thanks, Eric, for your pertinent comments. In keeping with your last paragraph, here is part of the mass email I received this morning from the War Resisters League: "The United States should . . . unilaterally begin a nuclear disarmament race by dismantling its nuclear weapons without waiting for treaties with other countries to do the same."
DeleteWhile that is certainly something I think our country should do, it definitely won't happen under our current President and is most likely not going to happen under his successor either.
I also received an email from a local Thinking Friend who did not want me to post his comments with his name--but part of what he wrote was so important that I am posting it here without indicating who it is from:
ReplyDelete"I fear that now our talk of end-times 100 seconds to midnight trigger opposing reactions: 1. with it that close, there is nothing I can do about it; the quality of my work is not significant, for in 200 years, who will know (that is an almost direct quote from a technical man I used to think a brilliant production engineer); and 2. spurs to action [by] folks who care about the issue and who endeavor to make-change-happen. The balance of humanity stands aside; ignoring the countdown.
"Thanks for raising these thought-provoking subjects each week, encouraging us to put our minds into gear for action. Few of us feel that our efforts will help determine the outcome. Our efforts to conserve resources seem a speck of sand, on the beach of life."
Just a few minutes ago local Thinking Friend Bob Carlson sent me the following comments:
ReplyDelete"Thank you, Leroy, for this sobering and depressing blog post. It certainly is a call to take life more seriously, and to live with a sense of responsibility for the future. I’m not sure how prayer and meditation might help. But that’s about all I can do at this stage."
I appreciate the honesty of Bob and my not-named Thinking Friend above, both of whom are older than I. Certainly, especially for us oldsters, it is hard to see how we can do much. But there are things we can do, and every little bit helps when added to similar actions by millions of others.
ReplyDeleteFor example, we can vote, and I am confident that my Thinking Friends who have made comments here will join me--and millions of others--to help the candidate(s) who will help solve the problems that have been made worse over the past 3.5 years.
We can also speak up, encouraging family members, friends, and acquaintances to be aware of the issues and to vote and to take other actions that will help solve the problems rather than make them worse.
And then we can adjust our own lifestyles in beneficial ways. Yes, it may seem like "a speck of sand on the beach of life," but society is made up of millions of people just as there are millions of specks of sand on the beach.
As a young boy (first grade), I remember being taught how to survive a nuclear blast sent from Russia. I still remember the fear I felt as I watched the films made by the war department and Los Alamos labs. The Cold War was in full swing and it seemed I was living in the "100 Seconds".
ReplyDeleteMy life feels like it has always been living with some threat to me and humanity. Of the three end times possibilities, I feel nuclear war is the greatest possibility. As humanity rages out of control it seems that we are only one maniac (current leaders included) away from pushing the button that will kill millions.
I do wish the US would begin to focus on climate issues. However, I am pessimistic. Climate is no longer on the radar of the political structures.
Thanks for your comments, Frank.
DeleteYes, the covid-19 pandemic has become so much of the focus of the news that the threat of global warming has not been getting much attention. But surely a year from now with a new administration in Washington and the pandemic receding there will once again be emphasis on measures to combat the long-term threat facing the human race.
Capitalism is the dominant religion of our age, and it encourages an ancient pattern of finding clever solutions to short-term problems, while ignoring long-term problems as "externalities." Capitalist dogma holds populations and economies will grown exponentially forever on this finite world. There is, however, a tendency for externalities to grow exponentially themselves. In times past they affected nations and empires, so we read Gibbon's "Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire." Or casually pass over the Biblical declaration "Babylon the Great is fallen,..." (Revelation 18:2a) Are we facing "America the Great is fallen?" Or are we facing something far worse? Will we last long enough for one of the horsemen listed above to get us? Or will something else, like say plastic pollution, get us first?
ReplyDeleteThe Bible does have one hint for finding our way out, "Where there is no vision, the people perish: but he that keepeth the law, happy is he." (Proverbs 29:18)
Thanks for your comments, Craig. Indeed, capitalism encourages "finding clever solutions to short-term problems"--or even ignoring or down-playing problems in order that the "beast" can stay healthy, at least in the short term, which is one of the main reasons the covid-19 pandemic has been dealt with so inadequately in this country.
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