The
all-important midterm elections of 2026 are (finally) over, and in keeping with
the polls, the Democratic Party won decisively. The results, however, were much
better than what the polls indicated might happen—and even better than what I
had hoped for. The future of our nation looks much brighter today than it has for
the last two years.
The Significant Democratic Victories
From early on, I was quite sure the
Democratic candidates would win a majority of the House seats. For a long time,
the party of the POTUS has usually lost a decisive number of Congresspeople
midterm. Since the end of WWII, the
president’s party lost House seats in 18 of the 20 midterm elections through
2022. (Exceptions were in 1998 and 2002.)
In
seven of those 20 midterms, the House changed party control, including 2022,
2018, 2010, and 2006, four times in the last 20 years—and then a week ago today
(on Nov. 3) it changed decisively. At noon on January 3, the 120th Congress
will begin its term, with Democrats clearly in control of both chambers.
Before
the Nov. 3 election, the polls indicated the expectation that Democrats would
control the Senate 52-48. Two races haven’t been decided yet, but the final
tally is expected to be 56 to 44, a decisive win for the Democratic Party and
their largest Senate majority since 1992. A remarkable victory, indeed!
There
were seven highly competitive Senate races. The three candidates I was most
interested in on election day were Dr. Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Rev. Adam
Hamilton in Kansas, and Mr. James Talarico in Texas. If those three plus one of
the other four were elected, the Democrats would control the Senate.
When
I got up not long after 4:00 last Wednesday morning, I was overjoyed that not
only the three I was pulling for the most, but all seven Democrats in those
pivotal races had been elected! The final results show victories by Mr.
Talarico (55% to 43%), Dr. El-Sayed (52.5% to 45.5%), and Rev. Hamilton (51% to
46%).
Even
though several House races have not yet been decided, before the election a
consensus of polls projected Democrats winning roughly 225 to 230 seats, with
Republicans winning about 205 to 210. But now Democrats appear likely to finish
with 258 or 259 House seats, far exceeding pre-election expectations.
The
average midterm loss for the president's party since World War II has been
about 26 House seats. By contrast, Republicans appear headed for a loss of 43 or
44 seats, a significantly larger setback than the postwar norm and one of the
most severe midterm reversals in recent decades.
A Significant Republican Change
Three days after the election, the
POTUS announced that Susan Wiles was resigning as the White House chief of
staff and was being replaced by Stephen Miller. Ms. Wiles (b. 1957) assumed her
key position in the Trump 2.0 administration on January 20 (inauguration day), 2025,
having been appointed to that role in November 2024.
Ms. Wiles was the 32nd White House chief of staff and
the first woman to hold that position. After the election, Wiles formally
resigned. Politically, however, her resignation appears to have been prompted
by Mr. Trump’s desire for new leadership following the Republican Party’s
midterm losses. The implication was that she bore at least some responsibility
for the GOP’s defeat.
More important, and troublesome, than Ms. Wiles resignation, is
the announcement that the POTUS was appointing Stephen Miller (b. 1985) as her
successor. None of the new political appointments have troubled me as much as
the selection of Mr. Miller as the new chief of staff. I have long disagreed
with both his policy goals and his political style.
To me, his rise represents not merely a personnel change but a
reaffirmation of some of the most exclusionary and confrontational impulses in
contemporary American politics. A major New York Times post on November 7 was
titled, “In Elevating Stephen
Miller, Trump Doubles Down on Hard-Line Agenda.”
House
Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries sharply criticized Miller’s appointment,
arguing that he represents “a really toxic brand of political engagement, of
politics and of governance,” noting that voters had just rejected that style of
politics in the midterm election. I share that assessment.
A Significant Launch for 2028
November
4 can be seen as the real beginning of the 2028 presidential election cycle.
Given the results of last week’s election, Democrats seem well positioned to regain
the White House, provided they do not squander their advantage.
Who
their nominee will be remains anyone’s guess, but I think it will likely be Illinois
Governor J.B. Pritzker. Of course, a lot will happen between now and November
2028, but I will stick my neck out and predict that Gov. Pritzker will be
inaugurated as president on January 20, 2029.
What is your prediction?
Thanks Leroy for another of your thought provoking Blogs and I am disappointed in the Attitude of the two major parties toward one another.
ReplyDeleteWhy can’t We remember Rodney King’s famous saying, “Why can’t We All just get along?
I’m hoping&Praying for Best for our Future!
The first comment received this morning was from local Thinking Friend Robert Southard. he wrote,
ReplyDelete"Breaking the super majorities in Missouri and Kansas certainly helps our area. It's all so hopeful. I agree that new Chief of Staff is a huge red flag. This election is the first step with many more that must happen between now and the next general election. Things like taming ICE, convincing Trump that he has to work with Democrats or get nothing done as a legacy to the last two years which may mean as well as convincing Democrats to not spend too much time trying to impeach him. Getting rid of Hegseth could be a great start which would hopefully turn a corner on the war. Lots of Twists and turns to do before the general election will go well.
"I think the best candidate may be Pete Buttigieg, but can he win? So, the one I think actually has a shot at winning who is clearly on the progress the side is Cory Booker. But Pritzker might appeal to some Independents and Republicans as a tougher candidate which could be a plus."
The first comment posted above was by my boyhood friend, whom I have known since the late 1940s. And now here is a brief comment (in response to my closing question) from Walter Hass, whom I knew as Talm, and who was a friend of both John Tim and me as we attended the same church and elementary school (although not in the same grades).
ReplyDelete"I agree with you and agree that Pritzker might be the candidate."
About half an hour ago, I received an email from Eric Dollard, who lives in Chicago, so Mr. Pritzker is his governor.
ReplyDelete"Thanks, Leroy, for sharing your observations about the midterm elections, which dissipated my pessimism and restored a cautious optimism about the future of America and the planet.
"J B Pritzker has been a really good governor, in my opinion, and I believe he would be a good president. He had the luxury of a Democratic legislature, so he was able to enact much of his agenda. He is a billionaire, and he is Jewish, which may be a problem with some voters. I do not know his views regarding the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
"His biggest challenge will be the other contestants for president in the 2028 primaries. There are some other excellent potential candidates."
Thanks for your comments, Eric. I hadn't realized that Mr. Pritzker is Jewish, and indeed, that might hurt his chances of being selected as the Democratic candidate or elected as POTUS. I asked Copilot if he is a practicing Jew, and here was the gist of the response I received:
Delete"J.B. Pritzker is Jewish, and he appears to be a practicing Reform Jew who takes his Jewish identity and faith seriously, although he has not presented himself as strictly observant in the Orthodox sense."
Here is a brief, thought-provoking Substack comment that Paul Krugman posted last Friday:
ReplyDelete". . . to quote Churchill, this [the impressive Democratic victory] is not the end, not even the beginning of the end, but perhaps the end of the beginning of the fight to reclaim this country from the oligarchs."
As a quick look back to our previous conversation, my one Republican vote was for our county sheriff who ran unopposed. He is so popular here no one wanted to run against him. He is far more about job than politics. We had several Republicans running unopposed. I left those spaces blank. How Republican is my county? Our new senator Roy Cooper won our state with fifty-eight percent of the vote. His opponent Whatley won my county by fifty-four percent. That is a sad commentary.
ReplyDeleteI am much more sure of whom I don't want the Democrats to nominate than I am about who should be the nominee. I do not want anyone who feels the USAmerica has been a terrible country. I want someone who will stand up and say our country has made some terrible mistakes, and what we need to do is seek to live out the high principles of our founding documents as imperfect as they may be. They promise more liberty and equality in their idealism than any other documents (except the New Testament; I had to throw that in there.)